Assignment: Trends and Drivers of Health System Change

THE SCENARIO PLANNING PROCESS The Scenario Planning Process Courtnie Walker Walden University September 28, 2019 1 THE SCENARIO PLANNING PROCESS 2 The Scenario Planning Process The International Committee of the Red Cross is a humanitarian organization. Its efforts are dedicated to the eradication of human suffering through the protection of human life and health to ensure that all human beings are accorded respect. The scenario planning process carried out by the organization’s management revolves around ensuring that there are enough resources and personnel stationed across the world to alleviate human suffering and making sure that the responders have the necessary skills to help when disaster strikes. The following report of an interview with one of the organization’s leaders in charge of strategic planning reveals critical aspects of the organization’s scenario planning process which other similar organizations could adopt. One of the authors of the ICRC Strategy 2019-2022 is a leader of the organization. They played a significant role in the planning process which resulted in the creation of the strategy. The strategy anticipates future disasters based on some of the current disasters and reports evaluating the recent state of the world. It features contingency plans for the mitigation of each disaster individually. The plans consider everything needed to address the disasters and help the victims, which include the financial resources, human resources, and logistics needed for interventions to reduce the number of deaths and injuries as well as help the victims of the disasters. Their key focus in the organization is planning, logistics, and facilitation of resources and personnel to areas where they are needed. An interview seeking to discover their position on the role of the scenario planning process provided some insight into the four independent stages of the process. THE SCENARIO PLANNING PROCESS 3 Interview Questions How long have you worked with the ICRC? “Thirteen years. I started out as a volunteer for three years before taking up a position in logistics which I have held for ten years, during which I have risen through the ranks into management.” What are some of the uncertainties facing the International Committee of the Red Cross? “The organization faces uncertainties related to the occurrence of disasters all over the world. Some disasters such as hurricanes, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions can be anticipated. However, regardless of the possibility of the determination of their occurrence, the accurate prediction of their size, timing, and location is virtually impossible. Other natural disasters such as landslides are also difficult to predict. Manmade disasters such as terrorism, technological, and transportation hazards are equally difficult to anticipate. In addition to the occurrence, timing, and impact of disasters, the ICRC also faces uncertainties regarding financial and human resources. The organization relies heavily on donations and grants to fund its operations. Furthermore, a significant number of the organization’s personnel are volunteers making it virtually impossible to include them in the strategic plans resulting from the scenario planning process since their availability is uncertain.” How do you address the uncertainties to ensure that they do not impede the organization’s ability to respond to disasters? “The scenario planning process is the solution to the uncertainties. The completion of the process provides a contingency plan to be followed when disaster strikes. The plan reduces response THE SCENARIO PLANNING PROCESS 4 time, enhances the efficiency of the disaster response process, and ensures that there are enough resources and personnel to help the victims of disasters. “ What changes need to be made now to improve disaster preparedness? “Two main changes which should be made by the ICRC and other related non-governmental organizations are better planning and the alignment of these plans to anticipated future disasters. Planning ensures that an organization will have set processes and procedures to deal with any event or disaster which necessitates rescue. The plans should anticipate the events and disasters to ensure alignment of the set response plans to the needs of the victims of specific disasters. “ What is the role of the strategic planning process in your organization? “The scenario planning process is critical to the achievement of the objectives of any organization. For the ICRC, the process is the road map which guides all the activities of the organization to ensure the achievement of its objectives. “ What major lessons have you learnt through your authorship of the ICRC Strategy 2019-2022? “Participating in the creation of the strategies for disaster response and management for the organization has taught me the benefits of the scenario planning process. The process was the basis on which the strategies were created making its role in the planning function of an organization critical. “ From the interview, the leader’s position is evident in their support of the scenario planning process. They consider the process to be critical to strategic management in the organization. Assignment: Trends and Drivers of Health System Change

Their insight into the scenario planning process serves a guide through the process for a non-governmental organization serving a similar purpose as the International Committee of THE SCENARIO PLANNING PROCESS 5 the Red Cross. Their insight into the process is the rationale for their selection for the interview together with their duties which include the coordination of the critical areas of the organization such as logistics, resources, and human resources. Another key player who would have been a good interview subject would be a coordinator or supervisor who implements the plans developed after the completion of the scenario planning process. The interview would be aimed at determining the effectiveness of the scenario planning process. The scenario planning process identifies potential scenarios and determines possible reactions to them. The interview reveals that the process is critical to the achievement of the objectives of an organization since it enhances the organization’s readiness to respond to different scenarios. For this reason, organizations such as the International Committee of the Red Cross have adopted the process as a resource to guide their strategic planning. THE SCENARIO PLANNING PROCESS 6 References Chermack, T. J. (2011). Scenario planning in organizations: how to create, use, and assess scenarios. Berrett-Koehler Publishers. Agam, R., Tamir, S., & Golan, M. (2015). Gender differences in respect to self-esteem and body image as well as response to adolescents’ school-based prevention programs. Journal of Psychology and Clinical Psychiatry, 2(5), 00092. Du, H., King, R. B., & Chi, P. (2017). Self-esteem and subjective well-being revisited: The roles of personal, relational, and collective self-esteem. PloS one, 12(8), e0183958. Gross, S. M., Gary, T. L., Browne, D. C., & LaVeist, T. A. (2005). Gender differences in body image and health perceptions among graduating seniors from a historically black college. Journal of the National Medical Association, 97(12), 1608. Wade, P. A., &Wade, W. (2012). Scenario planning: A field guide to the future. John Wiley & Sons. Wolf, C., & Floyd, S. W. (2017). Strategic planning research: Toward a theory-driven agenda. Journal of Management, 43(6), 1754-1788. Running head: DISCUSSION QUERIES Assignment: Trends and Drivers of Health System Change

1 Discussion Queries Courtnie Walker Walden University MMPA 6390 DISCUSSION QUERIES 2 Discussion Queries Organization The selected organization is the American Red Cross (ARC) a contemporary nonprofit organization in the world. ARC was established in 1881 by Clara Barton as a humanitarian organization and is headquartered in Washington, D.C., in the United States. The ARC provides emergency assistance, services to the American military and their closest families, disaster relief, and disaster preparedness training and education in the U.S. The selected nonprofit organization provides its compassionate services within the United States. Moreover, ARC maintains close ties with the federal administration of the United States in its operation and provision of its humanitarian services. SWOT Analysis Strengths Weaknesses 1. Quality compassionate services. 1. Mismanagement of resources. 2. Positive reputation and image. 2. Limited fund. 3. Diversified humanitarian services. Opportunities Threats a. The adoption of advanced technology. a. Stiff competition for donations. b. The extension of ARC compassionate across the world. b. The negative press. c. The adoption of marketing strategies. Strengths. According to Bryson (2018), strengths refer to internal factors that enhance an organization capability to realize its mission and creation of public value. One of the strengths of the ARC is quality compassionate services. ARC has a high human capacity which is composed of the organization’s staffs and volunteers. Thus, the high human capacity of the organization enables its ability to provide quality humanitarian services. Secondly, the positive reputation and image is the strength of the ARC. The positive reputation and image of the organization are facilitated by the renowned compassionate services it offers to the citizens. Lastly, diversified humanitarian services offered by the ARC can be held as strength. The diversified services offered by the organization enhance the capability to be highly regarded and rated as important in the nation. Weaknesses. Mismanagement of resources is one of the weaknesses of the ARC. The organization’s weak resources accountability measures tend to result in a lack of accountability of the employees and volunteers. Additionally, a limited fund is another weakness of the ARC. The ARC depends on donations from the citizens and does not get regular funds from the federal DISCUSSION QUERIES 3 government (Redcross.org, n.d.). Thus, the lack of stable funding hinders the capability of the firm to consistently fund all its compassionate services. Opportunities. One of the possible opportunities for ARC is the likelihood of the adoption of advanced technology. Assignment: Trends and Drivers of Health System Change

The dynamic technology witnessed in the world can be employed by the organization to harness its efficiency and improve the quality of its humanitarian services. Secondly, the extension of ARC compassionate across the world is another opportunity for the organization. This undertaking would harness the capability of the organization to expand its donation sources. Lastly, the adoption of marketing strategies is another opportunity for the organization since it can promote the brand image of the organization in the world. Threats. Stiff competition for donations is one of the threats of the ARC. The ARC encounters the challenges of sourcing financial donation from the public due to a high number of nonprofit organizations that depend on public donations. Additionally, the negative press is another threat for ARC concerning the operation of the organization. The negative press adversely affects the organization by destroying the positive reputation and image of the organization. DISCUSSION QUERIES 4 References Bryson, J. M. (2018). Strategic Planning for Public and Nonprofit Organizations: A Guide to Strengthening and Sustaining Organizational Achievement (5th ed.). Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Redcross.org. (n.d.). Our Federal Charter: Our Relationship with the Federal Government. Retrieved from https://www.redcross.org/about-us/who-we-are/history/federalcharter.html THE AMERICAN RED CROSS 1 The American Red Cross Courtnie Walker Walden University September 20, 2019 THE AMERICAN RED CROSS 2 Introduction According to Wolf and Floyd (2017), most strategic planning processes include conducting a SWOT analysis to address an organization’s external and internal environments. A SWOT analysis is a useful technique used to identify the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats for organizations. SWOT-analysis helps the organizations to focus on what matters, in the short term of one to five years (Wolf& Floyd, 2017). To allow leaders to imagine on possible future events in the long time of even over twenty years, SWOT analysis does not remain used and, in its place, scenario planning gets used (Wolf& Floyd, 2017). Assignment: Trends and Drivers of Health System Change

Wolf and Floyd (2017) further explain that scenario planning allows envisioning strategic goals to leaders for the attainment of goals that they are willing to work to achieve over a long time.Chermack, (2011) explains that there are several approaches to scenario planning, including but not limited to Wilson and Ralston, Lindgren and Bandhold, Check Decision Strategies International and Reference scenarios. In this article, scenario planning is carried out on The American Red Cross. The report starts with a brief description of the organization, explains how the organization can use scenario planning with its strategic planning processes and provides a conclusion. The mission of The American Red Cross According to Springer and Casey-Lockyer, (2016), the American Red Cross was established on 21st May 1881 by Clara Barton after learning of the Red Cross in Geneva. The American Red Cross is a non-governmental humanitarian organization. Its main aim is to prevent and alleviate human suffering through disaster relief, emergency assistance, and disaster preparedness (Springer & Casey-Lockyer, 2016). The American Red Cross provides blood services, training services, and disaster services. Furthermore, it works through its strong network of volunteers, THE AMERICAN RED CROSS 3 donors, and partners who are always available in times of need (Springer & Casey-Lockyer, 2016). Some of the blood services provided by the American Red Cross include blood donation, plasma services, tissue services, leukoreduction, and nucleic acid testing etcetera (Springer & CaseyLockyer, 2016). The training services in the American Red Cross, according to Springer and Casey-Lockyer, (2016), is one of the major divisions of the organization which plays a crucial role in equipping the general public and its workforce with life-saving first aid skills (Springer & Casey-Lockyer, 2016). Some of the training services provided by the American Red Cross include Asthma Inhaler training, Lifeguarding, Emergency medical response, water safety, and wilderness and remote first aid etcetera (Springer & Casey-Lockyer, 2016). The organization, as Springer and Casey-Lockyer, (2016) further asserts, also responds to many disasters relating to hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, and explosions, among others. The American Red Cross has a formal authority to provide disaster relief as it got presented with a congressional charter in the year 1905(Springer & Casey-Lockyer, 2016). The American Red Cross and scenario planning According to Wade and Wade (2012), scenario planning is a strategic planning method used in organizations for the formation of long-term plans. The term scenario planning is also known as scenario analysis (Wolf & Floyd, 2017). Assignment: Trends and Drivers of Health System Change

Chermack (2011) explains scenario planning as a tool for bringing up assumptions for facilitating changes in the view that decision-makers have toward the environment. Chermack (2011) further explains that scenario analysis is a tool for improving or changing the quality of perceptions that people have. This section aims at describing how the American Red Cross can use scenario planning with its strategic planning process to engage critical stakeholders in long-range planning. THE AMERICAN RED CROSS 4 According to Springer and Casey-Lockyer, (2016), the American Red Cross stays guided by the fundamental principles of humanity, impartiality, neutrality, independence, voluntary service, unity, and universality.Following the underlying principles, some of the strategic objectives that the American Red Cross include the Movement’s ambition to become the essential independent force for humanitarian actions worldwide, imperative needsfor sustaining local capacities in the National societies and the provision of emergency help whenever human needs for equal protection arise due to disasters and conflicts. The strategic objectives that the American Red Cross have may face challenges in future and for the imagination of possible future events in the long-term, scenario planning models can be used (Springer & Casey-Lockyer, 2016). As stated earlier, there are several approaches to scenario planning, including but not limited to Wilson and Ralston, Lindgren and Bandhold, Check Decision Strategies International and Reference scenarios (Chermack, 2011). For the American Red Cross, due to the broad global scope that Red Cross covers, the recommended approach for scenario planning is the Decision Strategies International which is similar to the Global Business Network strategy (Chermack, 2011). This strategy, according to Chermack, (2011), is a ten-step process which adequately does an analysis of the rate of change and identifies the key stakeholders during the first two stages. In step three, fundamental trends get identified, while level four considers the critical uncertainties. The initial scenarios then get checked for plausibility from which general themes emerge. The method gets concluded through the reexamination of internal inconsistencies after the completion of additional research and the determination of scenarios to get used for decision making (Chermack, 2011). Potential future strategic issues THE AMERICAN RED CROSS In 23rd August 2005, Hurricane Katrina resulted in mass damages in the Southern United States and Louisiana. The hurricane led to losses that amounted to billions of dollars besides the approximated, one thousand eight hundred lives lost (Springer & Casey-Lockyer, 2016). This Hurricane Katrina catastrophe led to the exposure of emergency response systems as slow and insufficient for such massive disasters. Due to this, one of the strategic issues that may face Red Cross is that in future, disaster response may entail the use of drones and majorly be involved with people that have adequate machine learning skills.Due to the nature of the possible issue, the strategic principle that Red Cross have of voluntary service may be compromised; it is not anyone that can perform the required activities but only the skilled in machine learning and drone control. As mentioned above, the American Red Cross has the aim ofproviding emergency help whenever human needs for equal protection arise due to disasters and conflicts (Springer & Casey-Lockyer, 2016). Assignment: Trends and Drivers of Health System Change

In recent times, however, there are alarming increases in the pollution of the environment (Springer & Casey-Lockyer, 2016). The increase in the corruption of the environment may result in numerous disease outbreaks in the future, as Springer and CaseyLockyer (2016) assert. These healthcare issues may arise and be beyond the control of the American Red Cross, which prompts for countermeasures of preventive action, implying a need for the strategic changes of Red Cross from providing emergency help to implementing preventive measures. Scenario planning in strategic goal identification According to (Watson & Freeman, 2013), scenario planning is a part of strategic planning that involves learning to see the future in different ways and using the foresight to do things differently today. Scenario planning is also not merely about predicting the future but involves 5 THE AMERICAN RED CROSS 6 the imagination and analysis of current approaches to strategy to understand the environments that organizations have to engage in to flourish (Watson & Freeman, 2013).In determining the strategic goals for the American Red Cross, I would check the trends that would have arisen or that may or may not a .. Assignment: Trends and Drivers of Health System Change